South Africa’s Fuel Risks Amid Gulf Crisis

South Africa’s motorists and automotive industry face rising costs as the Middle East conflict unsettles global oil markets. Supply remains stable, but the country’s reliance on imports means higher international prices and a weaker rand are already feeding into local pump prices.

Rising Costs, Stable Supply

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG trade, has seen disruptions of around 13 million barrels a day, pushing Brent crude towards $100 a barrel. South Africa’s import-based fuel pricing model means consumers pay more when replacement cargoes cost more. The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa confirmed in late March that national supply remains stable, with imports for May and June already arranged. Diesel supply, however, is tighter than petrol due to refinery maintenance and elevated import dependence.

Diesel: The Key Vulnerability

Diesel powers freight, farming, mining, and backup generators. More than half of South Africa’s diesel imports come from the Gulf—Oman (34%), UAE (12%), and Bahrain (11%). This leaves diesel highly exposed to Gulf disruptions, making it the country’s biggest short-term energy risk. Petrol imports are also vulnerable, with the UAE supplying 35% and Saudi Arabia 11%.

Price Outlook for May

Consumers face likely increases in May, with petrol expected to rise between R1.50 and R3 per litre and diesel between R2.00 and R4 per litre. The government’s temporary R3 per litre cut in April may be extended, but no decision has yet been confirmed.

Wider Economic Risks

Short-term risks include whether a ceasefire or shipping corridor is agreed in the Gulf, higher war risk premiums for tankers, and the rand’s performance against the US dollar. Broader risks over the next few months include rising logistics costs, higher food inflation, pressure on interest rates, and weaker household spending, which could dampen new vehicle demand.

Automotive Sector Impact

Vehicle imports remain unaffected for now, with most coming from Asia, Europe, and India. South African ports handled nearly 800,000 fully built vehicles between April 2025 and mid-February 2026. However, the sector faces rising shipping costs, petrochemical-linked input costs, and reduced showroom traffic as fuel prices climb.

Conclusion

South Africa’s greatest exposure lies in refined fuels, especially diesel and petrol, rather than crude oil. With around 60–70% of refined fuel imports tied to Gulf supply, the country’s immediate threat is higher costs rather than shortages. For motorists, May promises more pain at the pump, while the automotive sector faces mounting cost pressures and weaker demand.

Read full article on our sister publication Dealerfloor at https://dealerfloor.co.za/industry-news/gulf-crisis-puts-sas-fuel-prices-under-pressure

(Photo by Irfan Syahmi on Unsplash)