The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains and exposed the risks of relying too heavily on concentrated hubs.
Andre Scholle, Vice President and Head of Region India, Turkey, MEA and CIS at ZF Aftermarket, stresses that the disruption is not simply logistical but structural. “While this seems like a logistics problem on the surface, it is a strategic design flaw in global supply chain resilience and redundancy,” he explains.
For years, Dubai has been the linchpin of trade between Europe, Africa and Asia, supported by strong infrastructure and a business-friendly environment. This central role was reinforced by the widespread adoption of Just-in-Time manufacturing, which reduces storage costs but depends on uninterrupted logistics. Scholle observes that “this focus on efficiency meant companies channelled vast amounts of trade through a few concentrated, highly efficient hubs, but this concentration created a single point of failure”.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has turned this strategic gateway into a high-risk zone. Rising oil and gas prices, supply shocks to base materials and rerouted cargo have all added to costs. Customers in East Africa and Asia, once served reliably through Dubai, suddenly needed alternatives. Firms scrambled to reroute shipments around the Cape of Good Hope, switch to premium air freight or rely on trucking. These costly adjustments highlight the vulnerability of a system built on efficiency rather than resilience.
Scholle insists that staff safety must come first. “No business strategy should override the obligation to keep staff safe,” he says. Relocating regional offices, whether temporarily or permanently, may be necessary. Agility and scenario planning are vital. “Scenario planning is not about predicting outcomes, but about pre-authorising decisions before emotion and urgency take over,” he explains. Each scenario requires a decision tree so teams can act decisively in uncertain conditions.
Information discipline is equally important. Scholle warns that “a critical error that business leaders can make is focusing on Western media for information on the path and trajectory of the conflict”. He argues that ground-level intelligence matters more than headlines when building resilient strategies.
Although Dubai’s logistics chains have not yet collapsed, Scholle believes diversification is essential. “Whatever happens, the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global supply chains have reaffirmed the value of a decentralised model and the importance of diversity in locations, with customer proximity creating more resilient logistics networks.”
Adaptability and flexibility remain the hallmarks of resilience. As Scholle concludes, “adaptability, flexibility and the ability to ramp up the business on demand offer businesses with a global footprint the competitive advantage they need when the regional hubs they have come to rely on go dark.”
