Electric vehicles (EVs) could account for as much as 85% of new car sales across the European Union (EU) from 2035, according to estimates from the clean transport campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E).
The projection follows the EU’s move to roll back what was effectively a ban on new combustion-engine models—although T&E warns that the EV share could fall to around 50% under weaker rules.
In December, responding to pressure from major car manufacturers, the European Commission put forward a revised target requiring a 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions from new cars and vans by 2035 compared with 2021 levels. This represents a significant softening of the original plan, which would have required zero emissions for all newly registered vehicles.
T&E has sharply criticised the shift, describing it as the EU’s most substantial retreat from green policy in years. The group argues that the change could prolong the sale of models with high carbon emissions, at a time when Chinese manufacturers are rapidly gaining ground in the battery-electric market.
The Commission has defended its proposal, claiming it will still bolster electric vehicle uptake while enabling carmakers to save €2.1 billion over three years, which could then be directed towards innovation and the development of new electric models.
According to T&E’s latest report, manufacturers might still be able to sell between 5% and 50% non-battery-electric vehicles after 2035. The lower end assumes continued reliance on higher-emission internal combustion engines, while the upper limit reflects sales of the most efficient extended-range plug-in hybrids. The organisation believes the most probable outcome is around 15%, representing a mix of combustion-engine and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
The report also warns that, combined with a longer grace period for meeting 2030 emissions goals, the revised approach could lead to 10% higher car-related CO₂ emissions between 2025 and 2050 compared with the current, stricter rules.
T&E cautions that the regulations may be diluted even further as they undergo debate in both the European Parliament and the EU Council. Both institutions must approve the changes before they can take effect.
